conquered by Titus Quintius； had not much territory pared to the
greatness of the Romans and of Greece who attacked him； yet being a
warlike man who knew how to attract the people and secure the nobles； he
sustained the war against his enemies for many years； and if in the end
he lost the dominion of some cities； nevertheless he retained the
kingdom。
Therefore； do not let our princes accuse fortune for the loss of their
principalities after so many years' possession； but rather their own
sloth； because in quiet times they never thought there could be a change
（it is a mon defect in man not to make any provision in the calm
against the tempest）； and when afterwards the bad times came they
thought of flight and not of defending themselves； and they hoped that
the people； disgusted with the insolence of the conquerors； would recall
them。 This course； when others fail； may be good； but it is very bad to
have neglected all other expedients for that； since you would never wish
to fall because you trusted to be able to find someone later on to
restore you。 This again either does not happen； or； if it does； it will
not be for your security； because that deliverance is of no avail which
does not depend upon yourself； those only are reliable； certain； and
durable that depend on yourself and your valour。
CHAPTER XXV
WHAT FORTUNE CAN EFFECT IN HUMAN AFFAIRS； AND HOW TO WITHSTAND HER
IT is not unknown to me how many men have had； and still have； the
opinion that the affairs of the world are in such wise governed by
fortune and by God that men with their wisdom cannot direct them and
that no one can even help them； and because of this they would have us
believe that it is not necessary to labour much in affairs； but to let
chance govern them。 This opinion has been more credited in our times
because of the great changes in affairs which have been seen； and may
still be seen； every day； beyond all human conjecture。 Sometimes
pondering over this； I am in some degree inclined to their opinion。
Nevertheless； not to extinguish our free will； I hold it to be true that
Fortune is the arbiter of one…half of our actions； but that she still
leaves us to direct the other half； or perhaps a little less。
I pare her to one of those raging rivers； which when in flood
overflows the plains； sweeping away trees and buildings； bearing away
the soil from place to place； everything flies before it； all yield to
its violence； without being able in any way to withstand it； and yet；
though its nature be such； it does not follow therefore that men； when
the weather bees fair； shall not make provision； both with defences
and barriers； in such a manner that； rising again； the waters may pass
away by canal； and their force be neither so unrestrained nor so
dangerous。 So it happens with fortune； who shows her power where valour
has not prepared to resist her； and thither she turns her forces where
she knows that barriers and defences have not been raised to constrain
her。
And if you will consider Italy； which is the seat of these changes； and
which has given to them their impulse； you will see it to be an open
country without barriers and without any defence。 For if it had been
defended by proper valour； as are Germany； Spain； and France； either
this invasion would not have made the great changes it has made or it
would not have e at all。 And this I consider enough to say concerning
resistance to fortune in general。
But confining myself more to the particular； I say that a prince may be
seen happy to…day and ruined to…morrow without having shown any change
of disposition or character。 This； I believe； arises firstly from causes
that have already been discussed at length； namely； that the prince who
relies entirely upon fortune is lost when it changes。 I believe also
that he will be successful who directs his actions according to the
spirit of the times； and that he whose actions do not accord with the
times will not be successful。 Because men are seen； in affairs that lead
to the end which every man has before him； namely； glory and riches； to
get there by various methods； one with caution； another with haste； one
by force； another by skill； one by patience； another by its opposite；
and each one succeeds in reaching the goal by a different method。 One
can also see of two cautious men the one attain his end； the other fail；
and similarly； two men by different observances are equally successful；
the one being cautious； the other impetuous； all this arises from
nothing else than whether or not they conform in their methods to the
spirit of the times。 This follows from what I have said； that two men
working differently bring about the same effect； and of two working
similarly； one attains his object and the other does not。
Changes in estate also issue from this； for if； to one who governs
himself with caution and patience； times and affairs converge in such a
way that his administration is successful； his fortune is made； but if
times and affairs change； he is ruined if he does not change his course
of action。 But a man is not often found sufficiently circumspect to know
how to acmodate himself to the change； both because he cannot deviate
from what nature inclines him to； and also because； having always
prospered by acting in one way； he cannot be persuaded that it is well
to leave it； and； therefore； the cautious man； when it is time to turn
adventurous； does not know how to do it； hence he is ruined； but had he
changed his conduct with the times fortune would not have changed。
Pope Julius II went to work impetuously in all his affairs； and found
the times and circumstances conform so well to that line of action that
he always met with success。 Consider his first enterprise against
Bologna； Messer Giovanni Bentivogli being still alive。 The Venetians
were not agreeable to it； nor was the King of Spain； and he had the
enterprise still under discussion with the King of France； nevertheless
he personally entered upon the expedition with his accustomed boldness
and energy； a move which made Spain and the Venetians stand irresolute
and passive； the latter from fear； the former from desire to recover all
the kingdom of Naples； on the other hand； he drew after him the King of
France； because that king； having observed the movement； and desiring to
make the Pope his friend so as to humble the Venetians； found it
impossible to refuse him soldiers without manifestly offending him。
Therefore Julius with his impetuous action acplished what no other
pontiff with simple human wisdom could have done； for if he had waited
in Rome until he could get away； with his plans arranged and everything
fixed； as any other pontiff would have done； he would never have
succeeded。 Because the King of France would have made a thousand
excuses； and the others would have raised a thousand fears。
I will leave his other actions alone； as they were all alike； and they
all succeeded； for the shortness of his life did not let him experience
the contrary； but if circumstances had arisen which required him to go
cautiously； his ruin would have followed； because he would never have
deviated from those ways to which nature inclined him。
I conclude therefore that； fortune being changeful and mankind steadfast
in their ways； so long as the two are in agreement men are successful；
but unsuccessful when they fall out。 For my part I consider that it is
better to be adventurous than cautious； because fortune is a woman； and
if you wish to keep her under it is necessary to beat and ill…use her；
and it is seen that she allows herself to be mastered by the adventurous
rather than by those who go to work more coldly。 She is； therefore；
always； woman…like； a lover of young men； because they are less
cautious； more violent； and with more audacity mand her。
CHAPTER XXVI
AN EXHORTATION TO LIBERATE ITALY FROM THE BARBARIANS
HAVING carefully considered the subject of the above discourses； and
wondering within myself whether the present times were propitious to a
new prince； and whether there were the elements that would give an
opportunity to a wise and virtuous one to introduce a new order of
things which would do honour to him and good to the people of this
country； it appears to me that so many things concur to favour a new
prince that I never knew a time more fit than the present。
And if； as I said； it was necessary that the people of Israel should be
captive so as to make manifest the ability of Moses； that the Persians
should be oppressed by the Medes so as to discover the greatness of the
soul of Cyrus； and that the Athenians should be dispersed to illustrate
the capabilities of Theseus： then at the present time； in order to
discover the virtue of an Italian spirit； it was necessary that Italy
should be reduced to the extremity she is now in； that she should be
more enslaved than the Hebrews； more oppressed than the Persians； more
scattered than the Athenians； without head； without order； beaten；
despoiled； torn； overrun； and to have endured every kind of desolation。
Although lately some spark may have been shown by one； which made us
think he was ordained by God for our redemption； nevertheless it was
afterwards seen； in the height of his career； that fortune rejected him；
so that Italy； left as without life； waits for him who shall yet heal
her wounds and put an end to the ravaging and plundering of Lombardy； to
the swindling and taxing of the kingdom and of Tuscany； and cleanse
those sores that for long have festered。 It is seen how she entreats God
to send someone who shall deliver her from these wrongs and barbarous
insolencies。 It is seen also that she is ready and willing to follow a
banner if only someone will raise it。
Nor is there to be seen at present one in whom she can place more hope
than in your illustrious house； with its valo